New Climate Perception Index analysis by The Data Appeal Company shows that repeated and unusually early heatwaves are beginning to influence how travellers perceive summer climate conditions across Southern Europe, with France and Italy showing the clearest signs of a shift.
FLORENCE, September 1, 2026 — After a summer marked by successive heatwaves, temperatures above 40°C across parts of Europe, extreme heat has become an unavoidable part of the 2026 travel conversation. New analysis of The Data Appeal Company / Almaviva Group shows that, while Mediterranean destinations remain strongly associated with favourable summer climates, repeated and unexpected heat is beginning to challenge those perceptions in some markets.
Using Data Appeal Mabrian’s travel intelligence ecosystem, this study tracks the evolution of the Perception of Climate Index (PCI)* across five South Mediterranean destinations—Spain, Portugal, France, Italy and Greece—from 2023 through summer 2026, examining shifts in traveller perceptions and responsiveness against officially recorded heatwave periods.
Five key findings emerge from the 2026 analysis:
- Heat still causes mostly short-term perception shocks — but 2026 is showing early signs of change. Across Mediterranean destinations, PCI generally drops during heatwaves and rebounds once temperatures normalise. However, repeated, early and prolonged episodes are increasingly capable of extending beyond temporary discomfort and influencing broader perceptions of summer climate conditions.
- France is the clearest warning signal. France recorded an average PCI of 77.2 between May and July 2026, well below Portugal (93.5), Italy (91.6), Spain (90.4) and Greece (89.9). Repeated and atypical heat early in the season, particularly during 2026 heatwaves, appears to be creating the strongest signs yet of a potential deterioration in climate appeal.
- Italy is beginning to show signs of a cumulative effect. After reaching a strong 92.2 PCI average in summer 2025, Italy’s May–July 2026 PCI stands –0.9 points lower than in the equivalent period last year, remaining at a high level but broadly returning to the range observed in previous years. While individual heatwaves have triggered relatively moderate short-term reactions, repeated exposure to extreme temperatures appears to be starting to weigh on the overall evolution of travellers’ climate perceptions.
- Spain and Greece remain resilient, but highly responsive to extreme heat. Both destinations show pronounced short-term PCI fluctuations during heatwaves, particularly when extreme conditions arrive early or persist. Spain’s overall summer climate perception remains strong, averaging 87.2 since 2023, while Greece maintains an average of 89.2, although its 2026 performance is softer than in previous years.
- Portugal shows how climate expectations can build resilience. With an average PCI of 91.1 across the summers analysed, Portugal records some of the most stable climate perceptions in the region. The relative normalisation of warmer summer conditions appears to reduce sensitivity to heat, while even a major 33.5-point drop during an exceptional September 2025 heatwave proved temporary. This highlights a key finding of the analysis: traveller expectations matter almost as much as temperatures themselves.
The analysis also reveals significant differences across source markets. French travellers, along with domestic travellers in the two markets analysed—Spain and France—tend to be more sensitive to extreme heat. By contrast, UK travellers typically show short-term negative reactions, followed by relatively rapid recovery. US travellers appear comparatively more tolerant of Mediterranean summer heat, maintaining consistently positive climate perceptions even during periods of elevated temperatures.
The findings suggest that the tourism impact of climate change cannot be measured through temperature alone. What matters for destinations is how unusual, prolonged and unexpected extreme conditions are — and whether they begin to challenge travellers’ established expectations of what a summer holiday should feel like.
“As extreme weather becomes an increasingly visible part of the travel experience, destinations need to move from reacting to climate conditions to anticipating them. Heatwaves cannot be controlled, but traveller expectations and experiences can be managed,” says Carlos Cendra, Chief Marketing and Communications Officer at The Data Appeal Company. “Understanding where comfort thresholds differ across markets can help destinations adapt what they promote, when they offer it and how they deliver experiences throughout the season.”
Download the report The New Climate Reality in the Mediterranean: How Heatwaves Are Reshaping Traveller Perceptions in this link: https://datappeal.io/heatwaves-percetion-mediterranean/
* The Perception of Climate Index measures traveller perceptions of destination climate conditions on a 100-0 scale. The analysis covers summer months (May–September) across Spain, Portugal, France, Italy and Greece since 2023, with 2026 data analysed through July.
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About The Data Appeal Company
Part of the Almaviva Group since 2022, The Data Appeal Company (Data Appeal) is a global leader in AI-powered data intelligence for the travel and tourism industry. Together with Mabrian Technologies, the company delivers the proprietary travel intelligence solution Data Appeal Mabrian, an integrated ecosystem that transforms Big Data from more than 130 sources into predictive insights and strategic recommendations for destinations, tourism boards, and travel industry professionals worldwide. By combining proprietary AI, advanced analytics, and specialized tourism advisory expertise, Data Appeal helps travel & tourism organizations make smarter decisions, optimise marketing strategies, improve visitor experiences, and foster sustainable destination growth and long-term competitiveness. Data Appeal’s portfolio also includes Coach, a digital reputation optimization platform, and Location, a spatial intelligence solution that supports strategic territorial planning and destination development.
More information:
Ana Maria Marquez
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