SUMMARY
How are recent political and economic decisions by the United States impacting the country’s inbound tourism?
The Data Appeal Company and Mabrian have carried out a first assessment by analysing travel intent and bookings across the ten most relevant international source markets for the US. The findings reveal a landscape marked by uncertainty and volatility.
Thanks to confirmed passenger data provided by Data Appeal, and Mabrian’s Share of Searches Index – which measures interest in a destination based on flight search activity, regardless of bookings – diverging trends are emerging across Europe, the Americas, and Asia, with US Tourism 2025 showing notable shifts.
The analysis, conducted by Mabrian on millions of flight searches between January and March 2025 from ten key outbound markets for the US (United Kingdom, Germany, France, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, India, Japan, South Korea and China) for travel up to September 2025, highlights significant fluctuations in international demand for the destination.
This is further complemented by data on international passengers who booked flights between February and March – the immediate aftermath of the US administration’s tariff announcement. Bookings via GDS (excluding low-cost carriers) were sourced from the destination management platform D / AI Destinations.
In general, both February and March saw a drop in total booked passengers compared to 2024. However, the decline was much less pronounced in March 2025, and in some markets, bookings actually surpassed last year’s figures.
This points to underlying uncertainty, with a clear recovery visible only in Asian markets.
As reported by Skift, the data is consistent with the US International Trade Administration’s figures, which show an overall 11.6% year-on-year drop in overseas visits to the US in March.
Europe: Uncertainty and slowdowns
In Europe, demand for the United States is declining. As of March 2025, EU27 travel intent dropped by 0.4% compared to the previous year, with Germany and Italy showing nearly one-point declines.
Travellers from France saw a significant decrease: -15.3% in February and -12.2% in March. Italy also recorded a downturn: -7.7% in February and -8.3% in March.
The UK market, however, has shown some resilience. While gross bookings slightly dropped in February (-1.1%), they rebounded in March (+1.6%), indicating growing confidence among British travellers.
“This data underlines the sensitivity of European markets to geopolitical developments,” explains Carlos Cendra, Partner and Marketing and Communications Director at Mabrian. “Data on the weekly evolution of inspirational demand reflects the weakened consumer confidence from travellers in these top source markets when considering the U.S. as a travel destination over the next six months. This is creating two key effects: shorter planning and booking cycles, favouring last-minute reservations; and a wait-and-see approach that discourages bookings made well in advance.”
The Americas: Mixed signals from Brazil, Canada and Mexico
Across the Atlantic, the data paints a more varied picture.
In Brazil, travel intent towards the US is declining. The Share of Searches Index is currently at 8%, down 1.2 percentage points compared to 2024. Gross bookings dropped by 15% between February and March.
Canada presents a more stable scenario. The search index remains steady at 22.3% year-on-year, though gross booking passengers declined in both months (-15.7% in February, -14.5% in March).
Mexico shows volatile yet generally positive weekly travel intent trends. Its Share of Searches Index reached 32.1%, one of the highest among all markets analysed. Confirmed passengers dropped sharply in February (-8%) but stabilised in March (-1%). As with other markets, the next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether this upward trend holds.
Asia: Recovery in Japan and South Korea
In contrast to Europe, Asia shows clear signs of growing demand. Both China and South Korea are outperforming 2024 levels, with steady increases in the Share of Searches Index since January – averaging weekly gains of +1.5 and +1.4 points, respectively. Confirmed passengers also rose significantly: China saw +40% in February (despite a -5% dip at the end of March), while South Korea posted a strong +32% growth in March.
Japan’s trend is more complex. Despite a +6.6% increase in confirmed booking passengers in March, its Share of Searches Index remains below 2024 levels (4.1%), suggesting that travel inspiration has yet to fully recover.
Outlook: Volatility ahead
”Travel intent and booking trends in the period following the announcement of tariffs clearly reflect heightened volatility and uncertainty. While March showed signs of recovery compared to February, the outlook remains highly unpredictable, as it is closely linked to shifting international policies and how travelers perceive global stability.
Mirko LalliCEO & Founder - The Data Appeal Company
Anticipating change to adapt destination strategies
In a global context marked by volatility and uncertainty, combining travel intent with actual booking data proves essential to anticipating trends and making informed decisions.
With its D / AI Destinations platform, The Data Appeal Company provides DMOs and tourism professionals with a predictive and contextualised view of travel demand, enabling them to design timely and targeted strategies.
