Rethinking destination strategy in uncertain times: Building resilience with tourism intelligence

We live in an age defined by uncertainty.

International conflicts, natural disasters, and ongoing energy, economic, and political crises have made instability feel almost normal. Uncertainty is no longer the exception—it is the everyday environment in which tourism destinations and brands must operate.

Take the COVID-19 pandemic: it completely reshaped the tourism landscape and permanently altered travel habits and decision-making. It was a global health emergency that exposed our limits and reminded us how unprepared we were to deal with unpredictable events.

During lockdown—much like today in the face of conflicts in the Middle East—the first reaction is often fear of the unknown, sometimes even panic. But that is not the only possible response.

Data intelligence and new technologies provide practical, actionable tools designed not only to support growth in stable times, but also to help navigate crisis management.

Tourism intelligence is one of the most powerful resources available to operators and DMOs, enabling them to anticipate change, plan effectively, and build resilient, flexible strategies in real time.

From hindsight to foresight: anticipate and respond

Data alone cannot prevent a crisis—whatever its nature—but it can help us anticipate its impact and respond thoughtfully and proactively.

In tourism—across both hospitality and DMOs—forecasts are typically built on historical data. But data can quickly lose its relevance when circumstances shift and reshape the present into something entirely new and unpredictable.

In such moments, destination managers are faced with urgent questions that history simply can’t answer: How can we assess the immediate impact of unfolding events on tourism? How should resources be reallocated in a constantly changing environment? Which markets should we focus on to maintain stable visitor flows?

The feeling is one of being at the mercy of events. Thrown out of the comfort zone, the only reliable compass for destinations and operators is up-to-date data. Not historical data, not annual reports, and certainly not gut instinct—rather, fresh, predictive signals that help them anticipate future scenarios and support concrete decision-making.

With the right data, even the most complex challenges can turn into opportunities.

Air booking and search trends, changes in flight capacity, hotel booking patterns and pricing fluctuations, event-related spending estimates, and analysis of visitor sentiment—all of this information, updated weekly or even daily, provides signals that together make it possible to anticipate, with reasonable accuracy, the impact of events on a destination’s tourism landscape. This, in turn, enables proactive and effective action.

Having access to these insights allows destinations not just to react to crises, but to anticipate and prepare for them—offering a real competitive advantage.

From Hawaii to the Middle East: crisis management with tourism intelligence

The Kīlauea volcano eruption: using tourism intelligence to take targeted action

In 2018, the eruption of the Kīlauea volcano in Hawaii caused panic among thousands of travellers, leading to a sharp decline in bookings and overnight stays.

In reality, the eruption affected only 0.2% of the territory, but extensive media coverage negatively influenced travel decisions in key source markets. This distorted perception cost the archipelago an estimated $220 million.

An analysis conducted by Mabrian—a Data Appeal company—revealed a drop in travellers’ perception of safety—something that could have been monitored through tourism intelligence and effectively mitigated.

“Flight searches for the state of Hawaii from the US west coast have fallen by 21%, and global bookings by around 10% according to the main OTAs and GDSs. The drops are much more pronounced in some specific markets. Could Hawaii have reacted earlier and in a more concrete way to mitigate the blow?”

By analysing social media mentions from over 900,000 tourists compared with the previous year, a sharp decline in the Climate Perception Index (PCI) was identified, triggering a negative ripple effect across other destination KPIs.

A closer look revealed that not all travellers reacted to the eruption in the same way. Canadian and British tourists proved more sensitive to the issue, while Americans and Australians responded more mildly; Japanese travellers were only marginally affected.

In other words, recovery timelines for traveller confidence varied significantly, highlighting which markets were likely to suffer the most and which would return sooner to visiting the archipelago.

The conflict in the Middle East is shifting global tourism demand towards the southern Mediterranean

There is no shortage of more recent examples of how tourism intelligence can be used to navigate periods of uncertainty.

According to a recent analysis by Mabrian and Data Appeal, the decline in confidence in Gulf destinations following the armed conflict in the Middle East coincided with a rise in travel intent towards the southern Mediterranean, particularly Spain.

Using the “Share of Searches” index, we analysed the evolution of travel intent over the three months following the start of military operations.

Unsurprisingly, the data shows clear signs of declining demand in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain.

By contrast, destinations in the southern Mediterranean are already taking advantage of this shift in international demand. Spain is leading this growth (+0.4 percentage points), followed by Italy and Morocco.

This type of analysis can prove extremely valuable.

• On the one hand, Middle Eastern countries most affected by the conflict can quantify the decline in interest from international markets and prepare more carefully targeted commercial strategies for when conditions stabilise.
• On the other hand, European tourist destinations have an opportunity to capture this potential demand by promoting tailored tourism offerings, thereby mitigating the indirect negative effects of the conflict.

“The war in the Middle East is a major disruptor of tourism dynamics,” says Carlos Cendra, Marketing and Communications Director at Mabrian. “And, in this context of heightened volatility, tourism intelligence becomes a strategic asset, enabling destinations and companies to interpret signals and trends, identify risks and opportunities, and adapt their strategies with agility to minimise impacts as far as possible.”

The cases of Hawaii and the Middle East are emblematic: having access to advanced analytical tools based on big data, NLP, and artificial intelligence is essential to act with greater agility and to focus efforts and resources where they are most needed in managing critical situations.

Crisis management: 6 actionable tips for destination managers

How can a DMO use data and tourism intelligence to make decisions and define a strategic plan for crisis management?

Destination management platforms like Data Appeal, which integrate multiple types of up-to-date data, provide a clear picture of the situation and enable organisations to act proactively—even in periods of high uncertainty.

1 – Anticipate tourism demand trends
When major natural or political events occur, many travellers may feel compelled to change their plans. In such cases, it is crucial to rely on predictive data—such as bookings, flight searches, fluctuations in air capacity, and KPIs like “share of searches”—to understand how markets are evolving.
For example, if demand from one international market declines, another (domestic or neighbouring) often grows or remains stable, creating an opportunity to redirect the offering.

2 – Read shifts in perception by source market
Not all markets react to a crisis in the same way. Analyse sentiment by source market—not just in aggregate—to tailor marketing strategies, reduce waste, and invest only in markets that are more likely to convert.

3 – Analyse sentiment by sector
Monitor sentiment not only for the destination as a whole, but also across different segments (hotels, transport, attractions) to understand how it varies. For instance, some cultural attractions often maintain strong sentiment even during crises, making them key assets to highlight in promotional campaigns.

4 – Monitor competitors
Benchmark your performance against competitors to determine whether the crisis is perceived as local or regional, and to understand how others are responding.

5 – Adjust campaign formats and timing
After a crisis, destinations typically launch marketing campaigns and press communications aimed at reassuring travellers. Knowing in advance which markets are more sensitive and which are already recovering helps determine how and where to allocate budget effectively.

6 – Analyse cancellations and changes in the booking window
Air travel data also makes it possible to track cancellations and shifts in the booking window—that is, how far in advance people book their trips. This insight helps determine whether travellers are more likely to cancel altogether or simply postpone their plans.

Changing the approach to shape the future

Relying on tourism intelligence is not just about investing in the right technological tools—it requires a shift in mindset. It means embracing a data-driven culture: an approach that moves from theory into practice and becomes a true competitive asset for a destination.

The destinations that will manage crises most effectively are those that have already built a relationship with data before the crisis hits, using it not to look back, but to guide immediate action.

Data cannot prevent a crisis, but it can determine which destinations are able to recover and regain momentum first.