During the summer, beach vacations across Europe can get pricey. The combination of warm weather, school breaks, and a surge in international tourists often means hotels and tourism businesses raise their rates.
This trend is particularly common in Italy.
The consulting firm Ideazione srl, specialising in marketing and territorial development, has merged data from D / AI Destinations and ISTAT to examine the relationship between pricing, bookings through online travel agencies (OTAs), and overall visitor numbers in four key Italian beach destinations: the Venetian Riviera, Maremma Toscana, Salento, and the Romagna Riviera.
The analysis addresses these key questions:
- How do increased rates affect online bookings and real visitor counts?
- Is there a correlation between occupancy and foreign tourists?
- What are the predictions for summer 2024?
- What is the impact of disintermediation on bookings?
Higher prices and reduced OTA saturation
From the 2023 vs. 2022 data, two key trends stand out: average room rates have risen, and OTA saturation rates (the ratio of bookings to available offers) have decreased.
These trends are inversely related: as prices go up, bookings through OTAs tend to go down — though the pattern isn’t perfectly linear.
Here’s a breakdown of the average nightly rates for 2023 compared to 2022 (including hospitality and short-term rentals):
- Venetian Riviera: up 16% (from €180 to €210)
- Maremma Toscana: up 9% (from €179 to €196)
- Salento: up 11% (from €142 to €158)
- Romagna Riviera: up 9% (from €139 to €152)
Meanwhile, the OTA saturation rates fell in 2023:
- Venetian Riviera: down 19.9%
- Romagna Riviera: down 15.02%
- Maremma Toscana: down 10.42%
- Salento: down 9.84%
(Data for June to September 2023 compared to 2022 – Processed by Ideazione using data from D / AI Destinations)
Why don’t OTA saturation rates match up with actual visitor numbers?
Based on the data we’ve reviewed, it seems that all Italian destinations experienced a decrease in visitor numbers alongside rising prices. However, does this tell the whole story?
With ISTAT data included, we see that nearly all destinations experienced an increase in visitor numbers for 2023 compared to 2022.
The Romagna Riviera was an exception, likely due to the significant flooding in May 2023 that probably affected initial bookings.
- Venetian Riviera: up 0.4% (22.5 million visitors)
- Maremma Toscana: up 0.1% (4 million visitors)
- Salento: up 4.4% (4.6 million visitors)
- Romagna Riviera: down 2.2% (21.7 million visitors)
What does this imply?
It suggests that although prices have gone up, overall bookings haven’t dropped. Instead, bookings have likely moved from OTA platforms to direct channels.
(June-September 2023 vs. 2022 – Elaboration on data from D / AI Destinations and ISTAT)
In practice, accommodation providers have started using OTAs more as a marketing tool rather than their main booking channels, which was often the case in the past.
With the removal of rate parity clauses, properties are now promoting direct bookings through their own websites, decreasing their reliance on OTAs.
2024 outlook: no rise in saturation
What can we expect for 2024? Will accommodation providers keep raising prices?
The data from D / AI Destinations on online rates and OTA saturation is updated in real-time. So it evolves with booking patterns and pricing adjustments.
Currently, data for June to September 2024 indicates that accommodation providers are adopting a more cautious stance on pricing.
(Data 2023 – 2024 – Elaboration on data from D / AI Destinations)
At present, prices are steady in the Venetian Riviera for 2024, with slight increases in Romagna and decreases in Salento and Maremma Toscana.
However, despite the price drops, OTA saturation rates don’t seem to be improving.
This might be due to two factors:
- Maremma Toscana and Salento attract a higher number of Italian tourists, who typically book closer to their travel dates compared to international travellers.
- Prices and saturation levels often increase as the travel date approaches.
We’ll have to wait until autumn for a complete assessment and to see how things compare to 2023.
International tourism: supporting sustainability and off-peak travel
One crucial observation is the potential association between international tourist numbers and accommodation saturation rates. According to 2023 data, higher international guest counts are linked with increased OTA saturation.
- Venetian Riviera: 70.1% international guests with 87% saturation
- Romagna Riviera: 24.8% international guests with 55.5% saturation
- Maremma Toscana: 24.2% international guests with 41.8% saturation
- Salento: 23% international guests with 36.6% saturation
(Data June-September 2023 – Elaboration on data from D / AI Destinations and ISTAT)
This data highlights another trend: international visitors significantly aid in de-seasonalising tourism.
International tourists generally distribute their visits more evenly throughout the year, unlike Italians, who predominantly vacation in August. This trend is further confirmed by our recent report, “Post-Summer 2024 Tourism Trends and Forecasts for France, Greece, Italy, and Spain”.
For a destination, this information is vital because emphasizing international tourism helps manage resources and accommodations more effectively, preventing overcrowding and supporting sustainable capacity use.
Why are rates and OTA saturation crucial for the destination?
As detailed in a recent study on this topic, examining the trends in rates and OTA saturation is key for tourist destinations.
OTA saturation reflects the extent to which online travel agencies control the local accommodation market. A high saturation rate means that most bookings are made through OTAs, whereas a low rate suggests that bookings are distributed more broadly across other channels, like hotel websites or direct reservations by email or phone.
Analysing online rates is also essential for evaluating a destination’s appeal and tourist demand, planning targeted marketing campaigns with operators, and staying ahead of last-minute booking trends.