- Medium-to-long-term effects of early January’s Caribbean tensions should be closely monitored, as data indicates that travel intent for 2026 first quarter for the region shows softening signs across global markets, particularly US and Europe.
- Although overall travel intent to the region for 2026 first half remains stable, several urban and leisure destinations, particularly in Mexico, as FIFA World Cup contributes to spark travel intent.
International travel demand for Latin America remains stable in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, whereas travel intent to the Caribbean shows weakening signs due to geopolitical instability, according to a new analysis from Mabrian, the global travel intelligence and tourism advisory partner, part of The Data Appeal Company. Both Latin America and The Caribbean account for 3.9% of the international travel demand market share worldwide between January and June 2026.
Besides considering international air capacity, Mabrian analysis tracks global flight search behaviour to the top 50 airports in each world region, focusing exclusively on international demand. Covering 86.7% of global travel demand, the study focuses on the market share of each world region over total flight searches. This methodology provides a standardised approach to comparing the evolution of travel intent across regions.
According to Mabrian, the region is set to benefit from a +4% increase in international air capacity over the next six months compared with the same period last year. The increase in capacity is largely driven by stronger interregional connectivity, with significant growth in inbound available seats from key Latin American markets, including Argentina (+13.4%), Colombia (+9.5%), Panama (+10.8%), and Brazil (+7.4%). Connectivity from long-haul source markets is also improving, notably from Canada (+11.5%) and Spain (+8%), while capacity from the United States shows a more modest increase of +0.4%.
Nonetheless, the effects of the instability in The Caribbean region in early January should be monitored in the medium and long term as data indicates that “international travel intent toward the Caribbean shows a global softening, particularly among US and European markets” according to Carlos Cendra, Director of Marketing and Communications at Mabrian. The Share of Searches Index based on the flight searches from the first half of January 2026 to travel from January to March 2026, show a slight decline in global market share for The Caribbean in February and March.
The contraction is more pronounced in the US market between January and March 2026, where the Caribbean loses market share of outbound travel demand, falling from 9.1% to 7.6% year over year, with the sharpest decline in January and an unstable recovery thereafter. This weakening is mainly driven by reduced demand for the Mexican Caribbean, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Aruba, and the Colombian Caribbean. Similarly, European markets show a moderate decline in February, followed by a partial recovery that remains below last year’s levels.
“The resilience of Caribbean destinations will be key to rapidly regaining market confidence, especially if conditions in the area stabilise in the short term. To do so is key for destinations to monitor source market perception and adapt their strategies,” points out the Mabrian expert.
Beyond circumstantial variations as a result of the instability in the Caribbean and overall stable market quota to Latin America until June 2026, several regional destinations show an upward trend in inspirational demand. Major urban hubs such as Mexico City, São Paulo, and Bogotá are recording slight increases in travel intent; similarly to Panama City, as well as leisure-focused Mexican destinations including Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara.
