Tanzania is entering its peak tourism season amid a period of unrest and instability that followed the 29 October elections. The events that unfolded in the aftermath have temporarily affected the destination’s perceived appeal among travellers.
According to our data, around 45 days after these events, Tanzania is beginning to show early signs of recovery in hotel prices; however, perceptions of safety among international visitors remain a key challenge.
Our analysis focuses on the evolution of Mabrian’s Perception of Security Index (PSI) and hotel pricing trends to assess how this period of instability has impacted Tanzania’s travel and tourism sector. The PSI has declined, particularly among European travellers, underlining the importance of rebuilding confidence to fully capitalise on the peak season. At the same time, hotel prices — while still below last year’s levels — are showing gradual signs of rebound, especially within the 4- and 5-star segments.
Between mid October and mid November 2025, Tanzania’s Perception of Security Index, which reflects the views of both domestic and international visitors, dropped by -4.3% compared to the same month in 2024, reaching 90.3 points out of a possible 100.
Among international travellers, the impact has been more pronounced: their Perception of Security Index fell by -14% compared with the same period in 2024, standing at 78.4 points out of 100. British demand showed the strongest reaction in terms of perceived safety and security, particularly during the week following the 29th October elections and their aftermath, when the index plunged to 43.9 points out of 100.
“Perceptions of safety and security are fundamental to restoring tourism demand, especially among European travellers — a key source market for Tanzania and particularly sensitive to instability in the destinations they consider”. He highlights that “even once the political situation stabilises, rebuilding confidence in travellers’ safety and security will remain a crucial and urgent challenge for Tanzania.”
Carlos Cendra, Partner & Director of Marketing and Communications, Mabrian
Hotel Prices Show Signs of Recovery
An analysis of hotel prices available across online travel agencies (OTAs) shows that following the initial wave of unrest in late October and through mid-November, the average hotel price in Tanzania stood at 174 euros per night, a -14.4% decline compared with the same period in 2024. This downward trend was consistent across all hotel categories: 3-star hotels recorded the sharpest drop, down -17.2% year over year to 96 euros per night; 4-star hotels decreased by 9.3% to an average of 233 euros; while 5-star properties saw prices fall by 14.8%, reaching 425 euros per night.
As Mabrian expert explains: “Despite entering what is traditionally Tanzania’s peak tourism season — spanning December to February — hotel prices remain noticeably below last year’s levels, reflecting the impact of recent instability on travel confidence.”
The outlook for late November to late December (23 November to 28 December 2025) and the following two months still shows lower average prices compared with the same periods in 2024, but with a slight recovery trend. Between shoulder to peak season, the average hotel price (190 euros) is expected to be -12% lower year over year, but +9.2% higher than the last month. Prices will remain below last year’s levels across all hotel categories: –14.3% in 3-star (102 euros), –9.6% in 4-star (264 euros), and –6.8% in 5-star hotels (453 euros).
Next two months outlook (28 December 2025 to 23 January 2026, as peak season advances, average prices (204 euros) will be -6.4% lower compared to the same period last year, yet show improved recovery with a +7.4% increase compared to the previous month. Yet, prices will remain below last year’s levels: –10% in 3-star (109 euros), –1.1% in 4-star (279 euros), and –3.1% in 5-star hotels (505 euros).
Lastly, 4-star hotels are cushioning the impact of the local unrest most effectively, showing the strongest rebound: +13.3% between late November and late December compared to the prior month, and +5.7% over the following two months. Forecast data indicates that by late January 2026, 4-star hotel prices will be on a par with the same period last year. 5-star hotels are also recovering steadily, with +6.6% between late November and late December and +11.5% in the two-month outlook, though still -3.1% below last year’s levels by late January.
“While prices are showing signs of rebound, the market has not yet regained the confidence and price strength typical of this period, suggesting that restoring traveller confidence — especially among international and European visitors — will be key for the hospitality sector to fully capitalise on the remainder of the peak season,” Cendra concludes.
