The decline in confidence in Gulf destinations amid the armed conflict in the Middle East coincides with a rise in travel intention over the next three months towards the Southern Mediterranean, particularly Spain.
As highlighted in the latest analysis by Mabrian by Data Appeal, the escalation of tensions in the Middle East is having a significant impact on travel intention to the Arab Gulf countries, which is showing a significant decline, while Southern Mediterranean destinations are benefiting from an increase in demand. Meanwhile, countries such as Türkiye and Egypt are exhibiting divergent dynamics, reflecting an uneven impact on travellers’ preferences.
Using the Share of Searches Index, Mabrian has assessed the evolution of travel intention based on data from millions of international flight searches conducted between 28 February (when military operations began) and 14 March 2026, for travel over the next three months to the six GCC countries (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, and Kuwait), as well as Spain, Italy, France, Greece, Morocco, Türkiye, and Egypt.
Carlos Cendra, Marketing and Communications Director at Mabrian, highlights the “decisive” role of safety perception in shaping traveller confidence, an indicator that “has continued to deteriorate among GCC countries since the outbreak of the armed conflict in the Middle East”.
Following the start of military operations in Iran on 28 February, destinations closest to the affected area have recorded the sharpest declines and greater volatility in the Perception of Security Index (PSI). Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait continue to face the greatest challenges in recovering pre-conflict levels, while safety perception in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia shows greater resilience and a more stable trend. Qatar has also begun to stabilise since early March, after a sharp drop in the PSI at the onset of the conflict, which has now moderated and is showing signs of recovery.
“The spillover effect in safety perception, already identified in our preliminary analysis, persists in destinations close to the affected region, such as Jordan, Türkiye and Egypt. However,” notes the Mabrian spokesperson, “Egypt is showing a more positive trend, which is also reflected in travel intention data.”
Demand is moving towards the Southern Mediterranean in the short term
International travel intention towards GCC countries over the next three months is showing a notable decline, as reflected in flight searches and these destinations’ market share during the nearly 20 days analysed since the start of military operations.
Clear signs of demand contraction can be observed in the United Arab Emirates (-1.6 percentage points compared with the same period in 2025), as well as in Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain, while the decline is more moderate in Oman. The only exception is Saudi Arabia, where the Share of Searches Index shows a slight increase (+0.2 percentage points), “partly driven by the seasonal effect linked to the end of Ramadan, scheduled between 19 and 20 March, although its conversion into actual bookings will depend on how the situation in the region evolves”, Cendra notes.
By contrast, Southern Mediterranean destinations are capturing this shift in international demand. Spain leads this growth (+0.4 percentage points), followed by Italy and Morocco, which are recording moderate increases, while France and Greece show more modest gains.
As for destinations within the Middle East’s sphere of influence, such as Türkiye and Egypt, the data point to divergent trends. Travel intention to Türkiye over the next three months remains below last year’s levels, following a slight decline that began in February and intensified with the outbreak of the crisis, resulting in a moderate decrease (-0.5 percentage points). Conversely, Egypt is showing an upward trend: after a slight dip in the previous month, international travel intention has rebounded strongly, recording a significant increase (+0.5).
The Mabrian expert emphasises that “the war in the Middle East is a major disruptor of tourism dynamics” and, in this context of heightened volatility, “tourism intelligence becomes a strategic asset, enabling destinations and companies to interpret signals and trends, identify risks and opportunities, and adapt their strategies with agility to minimise impacts as far as possible.”
