Our Tourism Insights & Advisory team was invited by Mastercard Innovation Hub and Tourism Area to join a workshop in which we explore, along with Poland tourism officials, the potential and opportunities to leverage visitations’ increase, based on shared data intelligence
Poland is a destination on the rise, with great potential to grow in the coming years. According to Statista and World Bank data, based on official statistics, the number of international tourist arrivals in Poland is expected to continuously increase between 2024 and 2029, reaching by the end of this period 9.8 million arrivals, a 11.86% increase. In fact, the most recent figures published by Poland’s Central Statistical Office show that, between January and November 2023, the number of foreign tourists in Poland reached up to 6,526,000, 22,4% more than the same period on the previous year, and the country’s key source markets are Germany, UK, US, Czech Republic and Italy.
As data shows, Poland has many reasons to be optimistic in terms of travel potential, and local authorities have a unique chance to direct it towards a profitable, sustainable and steady growth; and this is precisely what they are doing. These are some of the insights based on our data intelligence, that may contribute to boost travel & tourism in Poland.
Key Insight #1: Diversification based on destination engagement
Even though Poland is considered mainly as a cultural destination for both international and domestic travellers; active well-being drivers (the combination of outdoors, nature, active lifestyle, sports and wellness) represents over a fifth of domestic travel motivations, and 17% of the motivations of the international markets.
Active well-being motivations are, in fact, a strong European and world trend , solidified after the pandemic. When focusing on Polish key source markets (British, American and German travellers’ motivations to travel to this destination), virtually 4 out of 10 travellers from either US, UK or Germany choose to travel to Poland to discover its cultural heritage. But active well-being is especially relevant for Germans; it is the second strongest driver (even more than for domestic travellers), after cultural discovery. In fact, 1 out of 5 Germans travel to Poland to enjoy experiences related to outdoors and nature, active lifestyle, sports and wellness. Active well-being is also the second most important driver for the UK travellers (16.9%) and the third for Americans (17.1%).
With these figures at hand, Poland has an opportunity in promoting in foreign markets experiences that not only resonate with a more engaging and active approach to travel, but also leveraging the infrastructure already developed and known by locals.
Key Insight #2: Rethinking foreign travellers’ target segments
Appealing to new segments can be attained following different strategies, including hotel pricing. Poland’s key source markets travel and stay in other European destinations, either Mediterranean countries (Spain, Greece and Croatia), as well as Central European (Hungary and Czech Republic). Understanding their benchmarks and price elasticity across destinations they are familiar with is key to redesign the accommodation pricing strategy from a global perspective.
A good starting point is the fact that the Hotel Satisfaction Index for Poland accommodations performed better (81.6) than its Central European counterparts (Czech Republic (79.2) and Hungary 71.3) in 2023.
When comparing full year average prices for 3-, 4- and 5-stars categories hotels in the reference markets, Polish 5-stars hotels are below half of the price of Spain’s 5 stars accommodation average, nearly half Hungary’s and Greece’s ADRs; over 100 euro below Croatia’s 5-stars prices, and 50 euro below Czech Republic’s. In the case of 3 and 4-stars accommodations, they are between 25 to 35% more expensive in the reference markets analysed.
Behind a better performing Hotel Satisfaction Index is the value for money perceived by visitors in Polish accommodations but, it is important to keep in mind that higher prices will translate into higher expectations, that might have a short-term effect on this indicator. Ultimately, this demonstrates how important it is to closely monitor the evolution of hotel prices and the Hotel Satisfaction Index, to keep consistency between expectation and the actual experience.
Overall, ADRs evolution figures show that, despite increasing rates year over year in mid-range and high-end categories, Poland accommodations prices are still more competitive than the reference destinations, and have room to increase them, remaining competitive. This will change the average cost structure of a trip to Poland, contribute to attracting other visitors’ segments (high-end, families, etc.) that are not travelling on a budget and have more room for longer stays and increased spending on the destination.
Key Insight #3: Harnessing growing air capacity that connect Poland with the world
The stronger direct air connectivity is, the more potential to appeal to new demand markets, or to grow the existing ones, and data show Poland moves in the right direction. Between 2022 and 2023, seat availability increased +21.7%, equivalent to 9.85 million seats: +33.4% growth comes from low-cost airlines and +16.5% from conventional carriers. Interestingly, international direct connectivity to Poland increased +23.2% and, even though direct connections are flying from fewer airports, air capacity increased in short (+16.9%), medium (+29.3%) and long (+23.5%) distance.
The top ten largest source markets per air capacity increased seats availability to Poland year over year. The ones that grew the most were Spain (+73.6%), Turkey (+45.2%), The Netherlands (+25%), Switzerland (+23,46%), and Italy (+21.8%). Germany, with a +20.7% increase, and UK, with a +17,61%, rank 6th and 7th, respectively; whereas the US ranks 10th, with a +6% growth. Middle East and Asia deserve a special mention as, even though both regions are not in the top ten, direct connectivity increases +11% from Gulf Arab States (namely UAE and Qatar), and +129% from Asian countries (Japan, China and South Korea).
Key Insight #4: Fair and mild weather, the Polish edge in the midst of global warming
Global warming poses challenges to many destinations that are impacted by extreme weather conditions, especially during peak holidays’ seasons; among them climate perception. Conversely, Poland can use its fair conditions as a differentiation trait as, in terms of Climate Perception, Poland exceeds the expectations of travellers from their key inbound markets.
Data indicates that, when compared with Mediterranean countries (Spain, Greece and Croatia), Poland gets a better Climate Perception Index among its key nearby European markets (Germany and UK). Though climate perception among US travellers is still high (86 points), it is 2 to 4 points lower than the Mediterranean destinations.
UK, Germany, and in particular the US, already have a positive perception of the climate conditions in neighbouring Central European destinations (Hungary and Czech Republic). This could be an opportunity for Poland, to promote their own mild weather conditions, similar to their Central European competitors, and showcase them as part of the Polish experience.
Key Insight #5: Unexpected downturns can become a part of the promotion strategy
Undeniably, the unrest and nearby conflict situation impacting Poland borders and cities is affecting its overall perception as a destination in the three key source markets analysed, affecting also the tourism products and services, and in particular safety perception, as shown in all behavioural indexes (Global Perception, Products and Services Perception and Security Perception).
This complex situation, beyond Poland’s control, but when the conflict eases, the destination can use recovery phase to relaunch and reposition its destination brand, prioritizing sources markets based on the actual performance of these indexes. Measuring and monitoring the evolution of Global Perception, Products and Services Perception and Security Perception indexes, globally and per key inbound markets, is pivotal to tackle any successful reputation or promotion strategies, now and in the future.
